Greg Bear, Ramez Naam and William Hertling on the Singularity

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Last year Singularity Weblog's Nikola Danaylov organized a round-table discussion with Ramez Naam,William Hertling and Greg Bear that examined the topics of the Singularity, and how the authors view the coming rise of artificial intelligence.

Nikola Danaylov of Singularity Weblog took a trip to Seattle last year, and had the opportunity to sit down with three of the city's best science fiction authors. The ensuing round-table discussion with Ramez Naam,William Hertling and Greg Bear delved into the topics of the Singularity, and how the authors view the coming rise of artificial intelligence.

The discussion initially looks at the question of the Singularity, and if it will occur.  Hertling says it is an inevitable outcome of technological progress and evolution, while Naam is much more skeptical.  To Naam, the process is self-limiting.

"It will take tens of thousands of human beings working for years to make an AI that is a little bit smarter than a human being," says Naam. "That one will be part of a process involving lots and lots of people and researchers and hardware to make incremental progress towards improvement."

From left to right, Danaylov, Hertling, Bear and Naam.
Image Source - Singularity Weblog

Also, Naam states that an exponential trend, such as the Singularity proposed by Ray Kurzweil, does not guarantee that it will go on forever. He also says that the problems of neuroscience and artificial intelligence are much harder than we realize.

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Bear, author of The Forge of God, appropriately sitting between Naam and Hertling agrees with the inevitability of the Singularity.  "The Singularity, in a sense, is already here," he says. In his view, so many people today do not understand their world, and they don't have any control over it. He also feels the Singularity is heavily shrouded in the world of self-promotion.

Hertling, writer of A.I. Apocalypsebrings up another interesting scenario.  "As the cost of hardware goes down, the hobbyist community can afford to engage more and more in AI. So Watson was created in IBM's lab on two-and-a-half million dollars in hardware, and in the early 2020's that same amount of hardware will be available to the common hobbyist in their home.  Won't we see different AI advances coming from the hobbyist, and won't they have different motivations for what they develop?"  Naam adds that the staffing costs for Watson far outweighed the hardware costs.

"I am mostly happy that the conversation gets people thinking about it, so it can change what's going to happen with advances in all the technology in robotics, biotech, nanotech, etc.  That's good stuff."

On the religious, or "rapture of the nerds" aspects of the Singularity, Naam states, "I am mostly happy that the conversation gets people thinking about it, so it can change what's going to happen with advances in all the technology in robotics, biotech, nanotech, etc.  That's good stuff."

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SOURCE  Singularity Weblog

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