Singularity  

Last year Singularity Weblog's Nikola Danaylov organized a round-table discussion with Ramez Naam,William Hertling and Greg Bear that examined the topics of the Singularity, and how the authors view the coming rise of artificial intelligence.

Nikola Danaylov of Singularity Weblog took a trip to Seattle last year, and had the opportunity to sit down with three of the city's best science fiction authors. The ensuing round-table discussion with Ramez Naam,William Hertling and Greg Bear delved into the topics of the Singularity, and how the authors view the coming rise of artificial intelligence.

The discussion initially looks at the question of the Singularity, and if it will occur.  Hertling says it is an inevitable outcome of technological progress and evolution, while Naam is much more skeptical.  To Naam, the process is self-limiting.

"It will take tens of thousands of human beings working for years to make an AI that is a little bit smarter than a human being," says Naam. "That one will be part of a process involving lots and lots of people and researchers and hardware to make incremental progress towards improvement."

From left to right, Danaylov, Hertling, Bear and Naam.
Image Source - Singularity Weblog

Also, Naam states that an exponential trend, such as the Singularity proposed by Ray Kurzweil, does not guarantee that it will go on forever. He also says that the problems of neuroscience and artificial intelligence are much harder than we realize.

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Bear, author of The Forge of God, appropriately sitting between Naam and Hertling agrees with the inevitability of the Singularity.  "The Singularity, in a sense, is already here," he says. In his view, so many people today do not understand their world, and they don't have any control over it. He also feels the Singularity is heavily shrouded in the world of self-promotion.

Hertling, writer of A.I. Apocalypsebrings up another interesting scenario.  "As the cost of hardware goes down, the hobbyist community can afford to engage more and more in AI. So Watson was created in IBM's lab on two-and-a-half million dollars in hardware, and in the early 2020's that same amount of hardware will be available to the common hobbyist in their home.  Won't we see different AI advances coming from the hobbyist, and won't they have different motivations for what they develop?"  Naam adds that the staffing costs for Watson far outweighed the hardware costs.

"I am mostly happy that the conversation gets people thinking about it, so it can change what's going to happen with advances in all the technology in robotics, biotech, nanotech, etc.  That's good stuff."

On the religious, or "rapture of the nerds" aspects of the Singularity, Naam states, "I am mostly happy that the conversation gets people thinking about it, so it can change what's going to happen with advances in all the technology in robotics, biotech, nanotech, etc.  That's good stuff."

We encourage our readers to support Nikola, and his great work interviewing thought leaders on the Singularity and related topics.  Show your support you can write a review on iTunes or make a donation.


SOURCE  Singularity Weblog

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 Economics of Futurism  

Author Ramez Naam recently talked with Adam Ford about futurism, the Technological Singularity and transhumanism. According to Naam, we need to think more about economics if we are to get a truer understanding of the future.

Adam Ford of The Rational Future sat down with author Ramez Naam to talk about genetic engineering, space, risk, group think, supply and demand of science and technology, social divide, the Technological Singularity and transhumanism.

For Naam, the two conditions that are most important to consider when thinking about the future are human nature and economics. What people actually want drives technological trends. "Why have we done so little in space in the last few decades?" asks Naam as an example. He suggests that it is because there is a low return on investment.  "There is very little way that going into space has made human lives better."

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"People fundamentally miss the fundamental question of the economics of these things," he says. Combining economics and human nature, with the fact we live in a market world, you need to think about what are the things people want, and how much they are willing to pay for them.  These will drive the majority (not the entirety) of directions in technology development according to Naam.

"Ignoring actual human nature is one of the biggest mistakes we make in futurism," Naam says.

Naam is an author of Nexus and Crux that explore transhumanist possibilities, although he would not call himself one. He thinks most people are already transhumanists — they wear glasses, use smart phones and get hip replacement surgery.   "Transhumanism is not a word people know, but it is a word they live out all the time."

According to Naam, people who do something to increase their abilities beyond what most humans have ever had, do it because it offers them value.  The economic underpinnings in human nature therefore make us transhumanists.


SOURCE  Adam Ford

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 Brain Interfaces  

More and more, the science of sending sights, sounds, and sensations in and out of human brains, and the frontiers of augmenting and transferring memory and intelligence is moving closer to practical implementation. In a recent talk, author Ramez Naam looks at the field, and some of the implications.

We are closer to being able to think together, through the literal linking of our minds, than you may have believed possible. In this TEDx Talk, Ramez Naam about the evolutionary and revolutionary technologies making this possible.

"Once you liberate the digital information from the brain, you can send it anywhere," says Naam, referring to recent experiments conducted by Miguel Nicolelis where two rats had their brains connected thousands of miles apart.  This research has huge implications for the future of communication according to Naam.

Citing the example of how technology has come into existence because communication exploded via the printing press, newspaper, radio, television and now the Internet, Naam believes that brain-machine and brain-brain interfaces will also extend our communication powers.

We will literally be able to see through the eyes of others, possibly leading to a world of greater understanding, he proposes.

"I loved giving this talk. The audience laughed a lot, as I hoped they would. It was one of the best, most receptive crowds I’ve spoken to," writes Naam on his blog.

Naam is an author of science nonfiction and also of science fiction that explores what could be. The ideas discussed in the video above help drive the plot of his fiction work.

He was born in Cairo, Egypt, and came to the US at the age of 3. Naam spent 13 years at Microsoft, where he led teams developing early versions of Microsoft Outlook, Internet Explorer, and the Bing search engine.

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His career took him to the role of Partner and Director of Program Management within Microsoft, with deep experience leading teams working on cutting edge technologies such as machine learning, search, massive scale services, and artificial intelligence.

Between stints at Microsoft, Naam founded and ran Apex NanoTechnologies, the world's first company devoted entirely to software tools to accelerate molecular design. He holds 19 patents related to search engines, information retrieval, web browsing, artificial intelligence, and machine learning.

Ramez is also the H.G. Wells Award-winning author of four books: including More Than Human: Embracing the Promise of Biological Enhancement, a look at the power of technology to improve the human condition; and the near-future neuroscience thrillers Nexus and Crux, about a technology that links minds, and the implications it has for the world. His most recent nonfiction book, on accelerating innovation to overcome environmental and natural resource challenges, is The Infinite Resource: The Power of Ideas on a Finite Planet. He lives in Seattle, where he writes and speaks full time.


SOURCE  TEDx Talks

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