Influential Designer Looks Forward To Self Driving Cars

 Self Driving Cars  

Senior design expert Donald Norman asks what's worse, bad drivers or bad robot drivers and comes up with a firm answer—the sooner we can get automated cars on the road, the better.

Donald Norman has been trying to help designers create human friendly devices and interfaces for  years. This includes the mobile technologies that now contribute to some of the most dangerous habits we deal with today—distracted driving.

"I am fearful of the rapid rush toward full automation and have published numerous articles about the difficulties we will face because of the mismatch of the automation and human behavior," writes Norman in a piece for LinkedIn. "However, I am even more fearful of the rapid rise of distracting devices installed in automobiles, mounted on dashboards, worn on the wrist or body, or carried on seats, pockets, and laps of drivers."

In the United States over 30,000 people die each year in automobile accidents. Over 1 million are injured. In the world, the World Health Organization estimates deaths at over 1 million and injuries between 20 and 50 million.

Self driving cars, like Delphi's that recently drove across the United States, today remain largely a research and development activity, however some estimates predict they will be common on our roads before 2020.  Managing all the complexities of city driving and adverse weather conditions remain areas where the technology needs to be made better, prior to mass adoption.

Meanwhile people continue to produce large number of deaths and injuries in their vehicles. Making matters worse is the rise of distracted driving. While drivers adjust the temperature in the car, tune the radio, or try to send a text message, distractions take their attention from the road for considerable time. As Norman points out, at 60 mph (100 kph), in one second the driver has gone roughly 90 feet (30 meters). In the city, at 6 miles/hour (10 kph), this translates to 9 feet (3 meters): one second of distraction is more than enough to crash into another vehicle hit a pedestrian.

"Today’s imperfect automation is preferable to today’s distracted and imperfect drivers. The sooner we can get automated cars on the road, the better."

Norman points out that more and more technology in our cars is contributing to the explosion of distracted driving. "Heads-up displays (HUDs) that once were aids to minimizing distraction by making it easier for the driver to see navigation aids and speed, are now catching featuritis, that deadly disease which corrupts products," he wries.  "Now HUDs show information about the song being played and at least one company proposes being able to do videoconferences with the image of the other person hovering in the air in front of the automobile. We know from aviation’s use of HUDs that when reading the display, people do not see objects on the roads (or runways), even though their eyes are pointed right at them."

Automation is imperfect, but it is continually getting better. Distractions are dangerous, and continually becoming more pervasive, more numerous. This leads to the obvious conclusion: Today’s imperfect automation is preferable to today’s distracted and imperfect drivers. The sooner we can get automated cars on the road, the better.

Laws don't work either according to Norman. "I predict that within the next decade, automation will be good enough to reduce the number of accidents and deaths in the world. More importantly, automation will be on an ever-increasing trajectory of improvement in safety and reliability."

When should we switch to automated vehicles, asks Norman. "As soon as we are determine that automation can significantly reduce deaths and injuries. We will need to do controlled tests in order to know that the cure – automation – is indeed better than the ailment – human drivers."

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Norman points out that self driving cars will not eliminate all accidents, injuries and deaths associated with driving. "Worse, because of the tight coupling of one automated auto to another, when there is an accident it is apt to involve multiple vehicles with a large number of deaths and injuries," he predicts. "But the fundamental question is whether there has been a significant reduction in deaths and injuries. Even if 10,000-20,000 people per year die in automated vehicles, that would be a huge decrease in deaths. And every year the automated vehicles will become safer."

The increasing number of distractions for drivers like infotainment systems and the every increasing number of new devices, tempt drivers and take their focus off their primary task. "Imperfect driving is potentially more dangerous than imperfect automation," writes Norman.  "Add to this the other benefits to those today who are unable to drive: the elderly, the handicapped, and of course the blind."

Norman is the director of the newly established Design Lab at the University of California San Diego (which is doing research on automated vehicles), co-founder of the Nielsen Norman group, professor (Harvard, UC San Diego, Northwestern, KAIST, Tongji), business exec (former VP at Apple and executive at HP), on company boards and company advisor, and author of best-selling books on design: Emotional Design, Living with Complexity, and the highly influential Design of Everyday Things.

SOURCE  LinkedIn

By 33rd Square

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