Martin Ford Looks at Technological Unemployment in Rise of the Robots

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Following up on the future picture he painted in The Lights in the Tunnel, Martin Ford explores the rise of technological unemployment and examines the concept of a basic guaranteed income in his new book, Rise of the Robots.

Martin Ford laid groundbreaking work in the future of the automated workplace and the potential for technological unemployment in his widely cited book, The Lights in the Tunnel.

Acording to Ford, artificial intelligence is already well on its way to making “good jobs” obsolete: many paralegals, physicians, and even—ironically—computer programmers are poised to be replaced by robots. As technology continues to accelerate and machines begin taking care of themselves, fewer jobs will be necessary.

"For most of the five years that I have been writing on this subject, I’ve been a relatively lonely voice; the attention of both the public and economists has been focused elsewhere," writes Ford on his blog. "Over the the past year or so, however, things have changed quite dramatically: deep concern about the robot revolution—and its impact on jobs—is going mainstream."

Now with, Rise of the Robots: Technology and the Threat of a Jobless Future Ford explores how unless we radically reassess the fundamentals of how our economy and politics work, this transition could create massive unemployment and inequality as well as the implosion of the economy itself.

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“It's not easy to accept, but it's true. Education and hard work will no longer guarantee success for huge numbers of people as technology advances. The time for denial is over. Now it's time to consider solutions and there are very few proposals on the table," says Jaron Lanier. "Rise of the Robots presents one idea, the basic income model, with clarity and force. No one who cares about the future of human dignity can afford to skip this book.”

If trends hold, artificial intelligence will take over the professional job market in the next decade as ruthlessly as automation and robots did the assembly lines in the 1980s, and mechanization did previously in agriculture. Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee refer to this as the "Second Machine Age."

Image Source: Fabrizio Bensch/Reuters

Most forecasters agree that the mid-level jobs such as factory and clerical work are most at-risk. Unfortunately, these make up a huge portion of today’s available careers. A recent study on the susceptibility of jobs to computerization by Carl Frey and Michael Osborne came to a devastating conclusion: “Around 47 percent of total U.S. employment is in the high-risk category... jobs we expect could be automated relatively soon, perhaps over the next decade or two.”

"Education and hard work will no longer guarantee success for huge numbers of people as technology advances. The time for denial is over. Now it's time to consider solutions and there are very few proposals on the table."

In Rise of the Robots, Ford offers both an exploration of this new technology and a call to arms to face its implications. A successful Silicon Valley entrepreneur, Ford himself has played an integral role in creating the automated future he describes. His warning rings clearly: robots are coming, and we must decide—now—whether the future will see prosperity or catastrophe.

The film below, recommended by Ford presents the problem of technological unemployment and introduces two potential solutions to this major social issue. The transitional path described in the film concerns a transition towards a job guarantee program of environmentally sustainable, socially and scientifically beneficial jobs through a public service program organised by the government, coupled with an eventual transition towards an unconditional basic income.

Rise of the Robots will be available in May, but is now available for pre-order.

By 33rd Square

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