Andrew McAfee on The Second Half of the Chessboard

 Exponential Technologies  

At the recent DLD Conference, economist Andrew McAfee used the example of the second half of the chessboard as it relates to the power of exponential technologies, and what the future may bring.

From time to time, we still get asked, "Why do you call the website 33rd Square?"  Contrary to some opinions, it is not based on some esoteric Masonic symbolism or the Knights Templar. The 33rd square on a chessboard represents the beginning of what Andrew McAfee and Erik Brynjolfsson call, "the second half of the chessboard."

As McAfee tells in the video above, recorded at the recent Digital-Life-Design (DLD) Conference in Munich, Germany, the second half of the chessboard relates to the parable of the invention of the game chess.  As the legend goes, the inventor of chess introduced his game to the emperor of India, who was so pleased that he offered the inventor any reward he named.  Giving the impression of being humble, the inventor asked for a single grain of rice on the first square of the chessboard, two on the second, four on the third, and so on.

Image Source: www.etereaestudios.com

Soon after the piles of rice entered the second half of the chessboard, the emperor figured out what was going on, and as some versions of the story go, the inventor lost his head as a result.

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What the story relates, as we know, is the power of exponential growth, which in technological terms is synonymous with Moore's Law.  As McAfee continues, citing Ray Kuzweil, "things only get crazy in the second half of the chessboard."  Our human intuition can't cope with the constant doubling after the 32nd square of the board.

In their book,The Second Machine Age, McAfee and Brynjolfsson calculated that if Moore's Law started in 1958, and the doubling period was every 18 months, "by that calculation, we entered the second half of the chessboard with digital progress in about 2006."

"That really helps me to understand why we are seeing smartphones and self-driving cars, and automatic translation and powerful artificial intelligence and this amazing parade of technologies. I think of them as second half of the chessboard technologies."

"For me that really helps me to understand why we are seeing smartphones and self-driving cars, and automatic translation and powerful artificial intelligence and this amazing parade of technologies," he says.  "I think of them as second half of the chessboard technologies."

If this calculated date of 2006 is reasonable, the clear implication McAfee points out is that we are only at the beginning of this.  We are still in the early part of the second half of the chessboard.

McAfee is also concerned about the dark side of the rise of technology.  One of these is the increase of winner-take-all dynamics in the new digital age.

Essentially optimistic, McAfee says that, "the pie is getting bigger."  He suggests that the new situation is creating a distribution problem above all else.

When asked a question from the audience that suggests recent economic data does not match with his predictions, McAfee clarifies that unemployment numbers are artificially high as so many workers have simply stopped looking for jobs. "Some of my colleagues are really worried about the Singularity and really worried about when we have super powerful artificial intelligence—let me tell you something: if things continue on the same trajectory they are now, the people are going to rise up way before the machines do."


SOURCE  DLD Conference

By 33rd Square

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