Premature Death Rates Continue To Fall Globally

 Longevity  

According to new statistics, global mortality rates continue to fall around the world, except where HIV and wars predominate.  Now, three-quarters of newborn infants will survive to age 50, and half will survive to age 70.

Death in old age is considered inevitable, but death before old age is not. Global mortality rates have been decreasing for decades except where HIV or political disturbances predominated.  This trend has been helped by sanitation, health care, and social changes. Even in low-income countries, at current death rates, three-quarters of newborn infants will survive to age 50, and half will survive to age 70.

According to a new study published in Science, if disease control keeps progressing and economic development proceeds, then within the next few decades—except where disasters or new epidemics supervene—under-50 mortality should fall to less than half of today's 15% global risk, and under-70 mortality should be less than one in six.

"Public health and medicine do not offer eternal life, but do offer a more comfortable life and an increasingly good chance of avoiding premature death."

The research was conducted by Richard Peto, Alan D. Lopez and Ole F. Norheim of the University of Oxford, University of Melbourne and University of Bergen, respectively. Around the world, premature mortality has dropped tremendously since 1970, and the authors believe the trend is likely to continue.

The chart above, which the writers include with their article, illustrates the optimistic pattern.

It shows the risk of dying at any given age, with the lighter-colored line representing the risk in 1970 and the darker line representing the risk in 2010. In 1970, people had a 28% chance of dying before they turned 50. By 2010, that risk had been cut in half. For children under five, the news is even better: mortality dropped from 14% in 1970 all the way down to 5% in 2010.

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Worldwide, premature death is caused by a variety of factors, such as insufficient maternal and infant healthcare, injuries and communicable diseases. But non-communicable diseases (NCDs), like cancer and heart disease, are leading causes of premature death in the developed world and an increasing concern in developing countries.

NCDs currently cause a quarter of all deaths before age 50 and a whopping 80% of deaths in people aged 50-69. The World Health Organization reports that NCDs are expected to kill 52 million people across all age groups in 2030.

Last year, the World Health Organization released a Global Action Plan for the Prevention and Control of NCDs, which includes plans to help people cut down on their alcohol and tobacco use, physical inactivity and salt intake — all factors that can lead to NCDs — while increasing access to medicines and treatments.

As Peter Diamandis comments, "As we create this world of Abundance, we're able to build tight family bonds as mothers and children both live longer, better lives."

Those efforts, the Science authors argue, could help cut under-50 deaths in half by 2030, reducing mortality at more than twice the rate it dropped between 1970 and 2010 and saving 10 million lives in the process.

The authors write, "Public health and medicine do not offer eternal life, but do offer a more comfortable life and an increasingly good chance of avoiding premature death. Still, however, almost all of us will die before 100."


SOURCE  Science

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