New Study Points To Dramatic Technological Unemployment in Next 20 Years

 Race Against The Machine  

Almost half of US jobs could be susceptible to ex over the next two decades, a study from the Oxford Martin Programme on the Impacts of Future Technology suggests.

Nearly half of US jobs could be susceptible to ex over the next two decades, a study from the Oxford Martin Programme on the Impacts of Future Technology suggests.

The study, echoing the book, Race Against the Machine, was a collaboration between Dr Carl Benedikt Frey (Oxford Martin School) and Dr Michael A. Osborne(Department of Engineering Science, University of Oxford), found that jobs in transportation, logistics, as well as office and administrative support, are at “high risk” of automation.

More surprisingly, occupations within the service industry are also highly susceptible, despite recent job growth in this sector.

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“We identified several key bottlenecks currently preventing occupations being automated,” says Dr. Osborne. “As big data helps to overcome these obstacles, a great number of jobs will be put at risk.”

The study examined over 700 detailed occupation types, noting the types of tasks workers perform and the skills required. By weighting these factors, as well as the engineering obstacles currently preventing computerization, the researchers assessed the degree to which these occupations may be automated in the coming decades.

The paper's authors make note of the fact that both machine intelligence and robotic dexterity are improving dramatically.  Moreover, sensor capabilities are also further extending the potential for automating tasks.

The authors conclude, "Our model predicts that most workers in transportation and logistics occupations, together with the bulk of office and administrative support workers, and labour in production occupations, are at risk."

What can we do to prepare for this?  Osborne and Frey suggest that, "as technology races ahead, low-skill workers will reallocate to tasks that are non-susceptible to computerisation [sic]–i.e., tasks requiring creative and social intelligence. For workers to win the race, however, they will have to acquire creative and social skills."


SOURCE  Oxford Martin School

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