Ideas  

Guest writer Connor Heflin introduces technogaianism—a word combining "techno-" for technology and "gaian" for Gaia philosophy.  Technogaians argue that developing safe, clean, alternative technology should be an important goal of environmentalists, and transhumanists.

It's easy to lose hope about things. After all, the adage of the news industry is "if it bleeds, it leads". But transhumanism, and its sister ideology singularitarianism, offer a counter-narrative, a hope for a better future. While it's arguable that there are some oversights and problems in these movements, people willing to look past the doom and gloom can find it appealing. However, much of mainstream transhumanism/singularitarianism is missing something: care for the natural environment.

Now you might be thinking that this will be some radical anti-science green screed saying that killing 99% of the population is a good thing, but it's not. The green movement is unfortunately rotten with people who view science, not as a way of saving the environment, but always as a way of destroying it. But there's a different green ideology that meshes with transhumanism, it's called technogaianism.

Technogaianism, as described by IEET, is:

"a bright green environmentalist stance of active support for the research, development and use of emerging and future technologies to help restore Earth’s environment. Technogaians argue that developing safe, clean, alternative technology should be an important goal of environmentalists. Technogaianism is a movement within Transhumanism."

But why should transhumanists embrace technogaianism? Reasons can be categorized as either selfish (solely benefiting the transhumanist movement and/or humanity) and selfless (benefiting beings outside of the selfish category).

Technogaianism embraces possible use of closed biospheres in space colonization, and also allows the study and manipulation of a biosphere without harming Earth

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Selfishly, transhumanists should embrace technogaianism because it could reduce the existential riskiness of artificial intelligences. An artificial intelligence designed to learn from its surroundings and the actions of others will tend to mimic them to one degree or another. Now if we're driving other species to extinction and destroying our habitat, wouldn't the artificial intelligence do the same to us once it becomes a superintelligence? While we can't know the answer for certain, it's probably better to be safe rather than sorry.

Things become more debatable when it comes to the selfless reason. Why should we embrace technogainism selflessly? Simply put, do we have the right to pollute the environment and cause other species to go extinct? While this might not be ironclad and likely has some shades of grey to it, it's worth thinking about. If you were a dodo or a thylacine would you have asked to be exterminated? One trait humanity in general has is empathy, the ability to put ourselves in the shoes of others. Why limit it to humans though? In applying protection to the environment and ecology, we practice what is commonly known as the golden rule (which incidentally was part of the new religion that was outlined in passing in Ray Kurzweil's The Singularity Is Near).

With that said, now is the perfect time to take action. Since technogaianism is science based, it will be in conflict with the position of anti-science greens (such as the responsible use of GMOs, or the usage of nuclear reactors where necessary). It's going to be difficult, but I'm confident that if we try we can succeed.

By Connor Heflin

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Singularity  

The scientific adviser to the film Ex Machina has a new book out which explores the Technological Singularity. In the book he describes technological advances in AI, both biologically inspired and engineered from scratch. 

The idea that human history is approaching a Singularity—that ordinary humans will someday be overtaken by artificially intelligent machines or cognitively enhanced biological intelligence, or both —has moved from the realm of science fiction to serious debate.

Some Singularity theorists predict that if the field of artificial intelligence (AI) continues to develop at its current dizzying rate, the Singularity could come about in the middle of the present century. Now, author and robotics researcher Murray Shanahan offers an introduction to the idea of the Singularity and considers the ramifications of such a potentially seismic event.

"Whether or not the singularity is near, these are questions worth asking, not least because in attempting to answer them we shed new light on ourselves and our place in the order of things."

In the new book, The Technological Singularity, Shanahan's aim is not to make predictions but rather to investigate a range of scenarios. Whether we believe that the Singularity is near or far, likely or impossible, apocalypse or utopia, the very idea raises crucial philosophical and pragmatic questions, forcing us to think seriously about what we want as a species.

Shanahan describes technological advances in AI, both biologically inspired and engineered from scratch. Once human-level AI—theoretically possible, but difficult to accomplish—has been achieved, he explains, the transition to superintelligent AI could be very rapid.

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"The aim here is not to make predictions," writes Shanahan in the book's preface. "Rather, it is to investigate a range of possible future scenarios, without committing to the prospect of any one in particular...even highly unlikely or remote scenarios are sometimes worthy of study."

He considers what the existence of superintelligent machines could mean for such matters as personhood, responsibility, rights, and identity. Some superhuman AI agents might be created to benefit humankind; some might go rogue. (Is Siri the template, or HAL?) The Technological Singularity presents both an existential threat to humanity and an existential opportunity for humanity to transcend its limitations.

Shanahan makes it clear that we need to imagine both possibilities if we want to bring about the better outcome.

Shanahan is Professor of Cognitive Robotics at Imperial College London. He has carried out work in artificial intelligence, robotics, and cogitive science. His publications span artificial intelligence, robotics, logic, dynamical systems, computational neuroscience, and philosophy of mind. His work up to 2000 was in the tradition of classical, symbolc AI. But since then he has turned his attention to the brain and its embodiment.

His current interests include brain connectivity, neurodynamics, comparative cognition, and the relationship between cognition and consciousness. His 2010 book Embodiment and the inner life: Cognition and Consciousness in the Space of Possible Minds was a significant influence on the film Ex Machina for which he was a scientific adviser.

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 The Singularity  

A science fiction themed special edition of Juice News sees futurist Ray Kurzweil square off against talk show host Alex Jones as they debate whether the blistering pace of technological progress is benign or dangerous.

Australians Giordano Nanni and Hugo Farrant at The Juice Media travel into the pure world of sci-fi to investigate the much vaunted, mysterious potential future event known as 'The Singularity' in recent video.

What will a machine consciousness mean for humanity? What are the ethical, political, military and philosophical implications of strong A.I.? And what would an AI sound like when spitting rhymes over a dope beat?

These questions and more are addressed in the segment Rap News 28: The Singularity - featuring a special appearance from famed technocrat, futurist and inventor, Ray Kurzweil, in full TED talk mode; everyone's favorite warmonger, General Baxter; and the dauntless info warrior Alex Jones provides a non techno-optimist view.

The Juice Media's Kurzeil raps about exponential technology

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The Juice Media's Kurzweil's raps:

I've predicted it, aligned statistics and the transition is evident:
we're accelerating towards AI, artificial intelligence
computers will soon pass the Turing Test with effortlessness,
attaining unprecedented levels of consciousness and sentience
and when it hits, it will be the end of savagery!

The video is as informative as it is amusing. Enjoy! The quip about Transcendence is great!


SOURCE  The Juice Media

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 The Singularity  

At a recent TEDx talk, Dr. Jonathan White looked at some of the unforeseen consequences of the rapid technological change we are experiencing - the unexpected societal, medical, and philosophical issues that we now must consider.

Would you upload your personality if you could? What do you think of the possibility of living without a physical body? Dr. Jonathan White addresses a reality that is not so far off as we might think - and what the ethical and philosophical implications of this future might be in his recent TEDx Talk.

"Whatever happens as technology advances, its going to be very interesting."

White has attended Singularity University, and has presented a critical talk of the organization.  He claims he hasn't completely bought into the idea of the promising future that the institution presents, but appears to still be considering what the Singularity is, and what the future will be like a lot.

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During his talk, White examines some of the unforeseen consequences of the rapid technological change we are experiencing - the unexpected societal, medical, and philosophical issues that we now must consider.

White presents a good overview of the Singularity, with particular attention to the future of medicine.  He looks at five ways we may transcend our biology in the future: augmentation, via advanced prosthetics; controlling the body, via understanding it at a molecular level; backing ourselves up, by uploading ourselves to independent substrates; eventual abandoning our bodies to robotic avatars.

"The last way is where we get really trippy," states White.  As for the extended and spiritual elements discussed by Ray Kurzweil and others about the post-Singularity world, where the space-time continuum is saturated with intelligence and consciousness, White confesses, "this is the hardest part of [The Singularity Is Near] for me, because I don't really understand what he is talking about."

"Whatever happens as technology advances, its going to be very interesting," says White.

White, originally from Northern Ireland, is a surgeon at the Royal Alexandra Hospital. Dr. White is a renowned teacher, and has won numerous awards for his innovative and creative approach, including being the first surgeon ever selected as a 3M National Teaching Fellow, an honor bestowed in 2014.


SOURCE  TEDx Edmonton

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 Economics of Futurism  

Author Ramez Naam recently talked with Adam Ford about futurism, the Technological Singularity and transhumanism. According to Naam, we need to think more about economics if we are to get a truer understanding of the future.

Adam Ford of The Rational Future sat down with author Ramez Naam to talk about genetic engineering, space, risk, group think, supply and demand of science and technology, social divide, the Technological Singularity and transhumanism.

For Naam, the two conditions that are most important to consider when thinking about the future are human nature and economics. What people actually want drives technological trends. "Why have we done so little in space in the last few decades?" asks Naam as an example. He suggests that it is because there is a low return on investment.  "There is very little way that going into space has made human lives better."

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"People fundamentally miss the fundamental question of the economics of these things," he says. Combining economics and human nature, with the fact we live in a market world, you need to think about what are the things people want, and how much they are willing to pay for them.  These will drive the majority (not the entirety) of directions in technology development according to Naam.

"Ignoring actual human nature is one of the biggest mistakes we make in futurism," Naam says.

Naam is an author of Nexus and Crux that explore transhumanist possibilities, although he would not call himself one. He thinks most people are already transhumanists — they wear glasses, use smart phones and get hip replacement surgery.   "Transhumanism is not a word people know, but it is a word they live out all the time."

According to Naam, people who do something to increase their abilities beyond what most humans have ever had, do it because it offers them value.  The economic underpinnings in human nature therefore make us transhumanists.


SOURCE  Adam Ford

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 Intelligence Explosion  

For Daniel Dewey the possibility of an intelligence explosion, the rapid advance of recursively self-improving artificial intelligence is one of the most important yet understudied phenomenon in our potential futures.

For Daniel Dewey's work the long-term future of AI almost certainly points to an intelligence explosion. An intelligence explosion is a process in which an intelligent machine devises improvements to itself, then the improved machine improves itself, and so on in a chain reaction, or "explosion".

It is plausible that such a process could occur very rapidly, and could continue until a machine much more intelligent than any human is created. If intelligence explosion is possible, many interesting problems gain practical importance:

Powerful computers will be able to perform accurate inferential and decision-theoretic calculations, and so will be able to choose effective courses of action to achieve any end they are designed to. Most ends that are easy to specify are not compatible, in their fullest realizations, with valuable futures. Dewey asks, are there ways to manage such potentially harmful ability?

The concept of the intelligence explosion originated with I.J. Good in 1964 in his Speculations Concerning the First Ultraintelligent Machine.

In his TEDx talk (video above), Dewey points out that an intelligence explosion may not involve any noticeable physical change to the computer systems at first.

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Looking back at the history of algorithmic improvement, it turns out that just as much improvement tends to come from new software, as from new hardware. This is true in many areas, including physics simulation, game playing, image recognition, and many problems in machine learning.

"What that means is that our outside observer might not see physical changes during an intelligence explosion; they might just see a series of programs writing more capable programs," he says. "Now, we don't yet have a good enough theory to know exactly how quickly such programs could progress, but this does mean that an intelligence explosion could happen at software speed, and in a self-contained way, and without needing new hardware."

As a computer self-improves, it may make mistakes; even if the first computer is programmed to pursue valuable ends, later ones may not be. Designing a stable self-improvement process involves some open problems in logic and decision theory.

Intelligence of the kind needed for an explosion seems to lie along most developmental paths that we could pursue. As Dewey points out, it would require significant coordination to avoid intelligence explosions.

As Dewey shows, little is yet known about the possibility of an intelligence explosion, and about the rest of the risk and strategic landscapes of the long-term future of artificial intelligence. This is an area that is very much in need of foundational research, and can benefit strongly from determined researchers and visionary funders.

"Whether it happens soon or in the long-term future, I believe that understanding and managing the phenomenon of intelligence explosion will be a critical task— for theories of intelligence, for safe use of AI, and possibly for humanity, as a whole," concludes Dewey.

Dewey is a research fellow in the Oxford Martin Programme on the Impacts of Future Technology at the Future of Humanity Institute, University of Oxford. His research includes paths and timelines to machine superintelligence, the possibility of intelligence explosion, and the strategic and technical challenges arising from these possibilities. Previously, Dewey worked as a software engineer at Google, did research at Intel Research Pittsburgh, and studied computer science and philosophy at Carnegie Mellon University. He is also a research associate at the Machine Intelligence Research Institute (MIRI).



SOURCE  TEDx Talks

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 Cryonics  

A recent London Futurists Hangout on Air featured a discussion between an international panel of people with practical experience of the world of cryonics: Max More, Anders Sandberg, Natasha Vita-More, and Garret Smyth.

What lies in the future for cryonics - the practice of low-temperature suspended animation of people who have died of an incurable disease, in the hope of a future cure?

This London Futurists Hangout on Air features a discussion between an international panel of people with practical experience of the world of cryonics: Max More, Anders Sandberg, Natasha Vita-More, and Garret Smyth.

The discussion with David Wood covers:

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• Recent developments in the world of cryonics, and anticipated future improvements;
• Why has the take-up of cryonics been comparatively low so far, and what steps might change that state of affairs?
• Objections to cryonics - and responses to the objections;
• Cryonics in context - new attitudes towards death and technology.

The Mores and Sandberg are involved with Alcor, the long-running cryonics foundation in Arizona.  According to Alcor, today brain tissue preserved with a modern vitrification solution shows virtually no freezing damage. Whole neurons are visible with intact membranes and well defined structure. This brain preservation which Alcor claims it can now achieve in human patients. Many who complain about damage caused by cryonics procedures are unaware that such preservation is now possible.


SOURCE  David Wood

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 Artificial Intelligence  

Recently author and film maker James Barrat sat down to chat with Singularity 1 on 1's Nikola Danaylov about his new book, Our Final Invention.

James Barrat has made documentary films for National Geographic, the BBC, Discovery Channel, History Channel and public television.

Barrat also scripted many episodes of the award-winning Explorer series, and went on to produce one-hour and half-hour films for the NGC’s Treasure Seekers, Out There, Snake Wranglers, and Taboo series. In 2004 Barrat created the pilot for History Channel’s #1-rated original series Digging for the Truth. His high-rating film Lost Treasures of Afghanistan, created for National Geographic Television Specials, aired on PBS in the spring of 2005.

Thirteen years ago, while filming an interview with Arthur C. Clarke about the movie 2001: A Space Odyssey, Barrat’s views on artificial intelligence, were changed.

Prior to that moment, Barrat had been enthusiastic about AI and the prospects for artificial general intelligence (AGI) and artificial super-intelligence (ASI).  It was Clarke's perspective though that had the deepest impact.  "If you are analytical about [AI], you don't just get the rosy picture," he says about the experience of dealing with the intellectual giant, Clarke.

The threats and consequences of the technological singularity (Barrat actually prefers I.J. Good's term intelligence explosion), eventually led Barrat to write the book, Our Final Invention: Artificial Intelligence and the End of the Human Era.

Huw Price, co-founder, Cambridge University Center for the Study of Existential Risk says it is "An important and disturbing book."

According to Nikola Danaylov, Our Final Invention "Is by far the most thoroughly researched and comprehensive anti-The Singularity is Near book that I have read so far."

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During a conversation with Danaylov (featured above) Barrat covers a variety of interesting topics such as: his work as a documentary film-maker who takes interesting and complicated subjects and makes them simple to understand; why writing was his first love and how he got interested in the Technological Singularity.

Barrat goes into depth on how his initial optimism about AI turned into pessimism and formed the thesis of Our Final Invention.  He sees artificial intelligence more like ballistic missiles rather than video games. According to Barrat, true intelligence is inherently unpredictable - a “black box.”

He believes that it is of the upmost importance to study the potential of artificial intelligence and the risk it presents.  To this end, he applauds the work of the Machine Intelligence Research Institute and other organizations.

"Our Final Invention has one big agenda and that is to say before we share the planet with smarter-than-human intelligence we really need to develop a science for understanding it," says Barrat.

Barrat shares Kurzweil's timelines for the Singularity for the most part, however is pessimistic about the end result though, citing the fact that organizations like the American NSA and CIA are probably using DARPA to create artificial intelligence for military purposes without taking into account the effects this may have if an intelligence explosion occurs.


SOURCE  Singularity Weblog

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 The Singularity  

In a very interesting talk at the Beijing Humanity+ Conference, Adam Ford presented a talk on how dramatic the technological singularity could be.

The technological singularity, or simply the Singularity, is a theoretical moment in time when artificial intelligence will have progressed to the point of a greater-than-human intelligence that will "radically change human civilization, and perhaps even human nature itself.

In a very interesting talk at the Beijing Humanity+ Conference, Adam Ford presented a talk on how dramatic the technological singularity could be.

Ford is a director on the board of Humanity+, and is founder and president of H+ Australia. He is also organised the first Singularity Summit apart from the main ones done by the Singularity Institute. He has organized numerous conferences around science and technology, aimed at shaping the likelihood of a favorable future. He has a blossoming youtube channel with over 500 videos of interviews and lectures.

Ford hopes to be able to accelerate progress towards completing these goals as he gets closer and closer to towards the Singularity – but by then they probably won’t make much difference.

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Since the capabilities of such an intelligence may be difficult for an unaided human mind to comprehend, the technological singularity is often seen as an occurrence (akin to a gravitational singularity in Black Holes) beyond which—from the perspective of the present—the future course of human history is unpredictable or even unfathomable.

The first use of the term "singularity" in this context was by mathematician John von Neumann. von Neumann in the mid-1950s spoke of "ever accelerating progress of technology and changes in the mode of human life, which gives the appearance of approaching some essential singularity in the history of the race beyond which human affairs, as we know them, could not continue."

The term was popularized by science fiction writer Vernor Vinge, who argues that artificial intelligence, human biological enhancement, or brain-computer interfaces could be possible causes of the singularity. Futurist Ray Kurzweil cited von Neumann's use of the term in a foreword to von Neumann's classic The Computer and the Brain.

Proponents of the Singularity typically postulate an "intelligence explosion," where superintelligences design successive generations of increasingly powerful minds, that might occur very quickly and might not stop until the agent's cognitive abilities greatly surpass that of any human.

Ford's next conference ‘Science, Technology & the Future’ will be held in Melbourne, Australia on Nov 30 – Dec 1st 2013.


SOURCE  Adam Ford

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 Singularity  

Futurist David Wood presents a broad outline of the technological convergence that will lead up to the Singularity, and how the next three to 40 years will see us enter an increasingly Hybrid Age.

David Wood is the lead organiser of London Futurists, and has been chairing public meetings in London on futurist, singularitarian, and transhumanist themes for many years.

In the talk above, Wood outlines how the development of exponential technologies may lead to the Singularity.  Importantly, Wood considers the Singularity to be a technology convergence of multiple, complimentary fields.

In the next three to forty years, Wood suggests that we will be increasingly a part of the Hybrid Age.  The concept, taken in part from Parag and Ayesha Khanna, co-directors of the Hybrid Reality Institute, represents a new sociotechnical era that is unfolding as technologies merge with each other and humans merge with technology -- both at the same time.

"The Hybrid Age is an age where biology and technology are increasingly mixed," says Wood. "We will use technological skills in biological situations and we will use biological skills in technological situations."  The Hybrid Age therefore presents enormous risk, combined with enormous opportunity he comments.

Image Source: David Wood

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Wood’s professional background includes nearly 25 years immersed in cutting edge mobile technology – envisioning, architecting, implementing and avidly using smart mobile devices. He spent ten years as software architect with UK-based PDA pioneer Psion, followed by ten years serving as co-founder and Executive VP at smartphone OS specialist Symbian. As principal of Delta Wisdom, Wood works with leading companies who are concerned about the dramatic impact of rapidly changing technology on human individuals and communities, and provides advice on opportunities to apply technology in new solutions to deep-rooted problems.

In November 2005, Wood received an honorary Doctorate in Science (D.Sc.) from the University of Westminster, “in recognition of services to the smartphone industry”. In 2010 he featured in the world’s first Augmented Reality CV.


SOURCE  David Wood

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 Quantum Computers  

In a recent conversation with Singularity Weblog's Nikola Danaylov, D-Wave Computer's Geordie Rose covered a variety of interesting topics such as: how wrestling competitively created an opportunity for him to discover Quantum Mechanics; why he decided to become an entrepreneur building computers at the edge of science and technology.

Geordie Rose is a founder and Chief Technology Officer at D-Wave Computers.

During a recent conversation with Singularity Weblog's Nikola Danaylov, Rose covered a variety of interesting topics such as: how wrestling competitively created an opportunity for him to discover Quantum Mechanics; why he decided to become an entrepreneur building computers at the edge of science and technology; what the name D-wave stands for; what is a quantum computer; and why fabrication technology is the greatest limiting factor towards commoditizing quantum computing.

Rose also explains Vesuvius – D-Wave’s latest model, and the kinds of problems it can compute; Rose’s Law as the quantum computer version of Moore’s Law; how D-wave resolves the de-coherence/interference problem; the traditional von Neumann architecture behind classical computer design and why D-Wave had to move beyond it; Vesuvius’ computational power as compared to similarly priced classical super-computers and the inherent difficulties in accurate bench-marking; Eric Ladizinski’s qubit and the velodrome metaphor used to describe it; the skepticism among numerous scientists as to whether D-Wave really makes quantum computers or not; whether Geordie feels occasionally like Charles Babbage trying to build his difference engine; his prediction that quantum computers will help us create AI by 2029; whether the brain is more like a classical or quantum computer; and how you can apply for programming time on the two D-wave quantum computers.

In the interview, Rose also offers his take on the technological Singularity.

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According to Rose, “Machine learning is progressing faster than you think and will become more broadly available on shorter timescales than you might have hoped.”

Rose is a founder and CTO of D-Wave. He is a leading advocate for quantum computing and physics-based processor design, and has been invited to speak on these topics in venues ranging from the 2003 TED Conference to the 2013 HPC User Forum.

Rose’s innovative and ambitious approach to building quantum computing technology has received coverage in MIT Technology Review magazine, The Economist, New Scientist, Scientific American, Nature and Science magazines, and one of his business strategies was profiled in a Harvard Business School case study. He has received several awards and accolades for his work with D-Wave, including winning the 2011 Canadian Innovation Exchange Innovator of the Year award.

Dr. Rose holds a PhD in theoretical physics from the University of British Columbia, specializing in quantum effects in materials. While at McMaster University, he graduated first in his class with a BEng in Engineering Physics, specializing in semiconductor engineering. He also is a two-time Canadian national wrestling champion, the 2010 NAGA Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu world champion, and a member of the McMaster University sports Hall of Fame.



SOURCE  Singularity Weblog

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 Singularity  

Jason Silva, futurist and performance philosopher, talks about how various intellectuals have described and predicted the technological Singularity.

Jason Silva, futurist and performance philosopher, talks about how various intellectuals have described and predicted the technological Singularity.

 This is an extract from his interview with London Real, mixed with music by Shulman and kinetic typography by Omega Point (Omid Pakbin).

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Silva writes on Facebook:

I love the internet! Someone gets inspired by an interview I gave, rips the audio, remixes with in Kinetic typography and shares it with the world! ‪#‎GLobalBrain‬! thanks Omid Pakbin - Make sure you watch this video: THE INEFFABLE SINGULARITY!

SOURCE  Omega Point

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 Nanotechnology  

K. Eric Drexler is the founding father of nanotechnology—the science of engineering on a molecular level. In Radical Abundance, he shows how rapid scientific progress is about to change our world. Thanks to atomically precise manufacturing, we will soon have the power to produce radically more of what people want, and at a lower cost. The result will shake the very foundations of our economy and environment.

K.Eric Drexler is known as the founding father of nanotechnology—the science of engineering on a molecular level. In Radical Abundance: How a Revolution in Nanotechnology Will Change Civilization, he shows how rapid scientific progress is about to dramatically change our world.

Thanks to atomically precise manufacturing, we will soon have the power to produce radically more of what people want, and at a lower cost says Drexler. The result will shake the very foundations of our economy and environment.

Already, scientists have constructed prototypes for circuit boards built of millions of precisely arranged atoms. The advent of this kind of atomic precision promises to change the way we make things—cleanly, inexpensively, and on a global scale. It allows us to imagine a world where solar arrays cost no more than cardboard and aluminum foil, and laptops cost about the same.

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A provocative tour of cutting edge science and its implications by the field’s founder and master, Radical Abundance offers a mind-expanding vision of a world hurtling toward an unexpected future.

The topics include:

• -The nature of science and engineering, and the prospects for a deep transformation in the material basis of civilization.
• -Why all of this is surprisingly understandable.
• -A personal narrative of the emergence of the molecular nanotechnology concept and the turbulent history of progress and politics that followed
• -The quiet rise of macromolecular nanotechnologies, their power, and the rapidly advancing state of the art
• -Incremental paths toward advanced nanotechnologies, the inherent accelerators, and the institutional challenges
• -The technologies of radical abundance, what they are, and what they will enable
• -Disruptive solutions for problems of economic development, energy, resource depletion, and the environment
• -Potential pitfalls in competitive national strategies; shared interests in risk reduction and cooperative transition management
• -Steps toward changing the conversation about the future

SOURCE  TWIT Triangulation

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 The Singularity

In Ray Kurzweil's The Singularity Is Near, he discusses three main technologies that will impact the future: G, N and R for genetics, nanotechnology and robotics (which includes the most powerful technology, AI). But did the futurist leave out one very important development that is presently impacting society, economics and people's lives in a very substantial way?

Ray Kurzweil carefully explained in The Singularity Is Near how Genetics (G), Nanotechnology (N) and Robotics (R) are the primary exponential technologies of the coming Singularity.

These "the three overlapping revolutions," he says they will characterize the first half of the twenty-first century. He goes on to say, "These (GNR technologies) will usher in the beginning of the Singularity. We are in the early stages of the 'G' revolution today. By understanding the information processes underlying life, we are starting to learn to reprogram our biology to achieve the virtual elimination of disease, dramatic expansion of human potential, and radical life extension."

Kurzweil then says regarding nanotechnology, "The 'N' revolution will enable us to redesign and rebuild - molecule by molecule - our bodies and brains and the world with which we interact, going far beyond the limitations of biology."

 Of the three (GNR), Ray Kurzweil believes that the most powerful impending revolution is the 'R' revolution as it encompasses artificial intelligence.   He writes, "Human-level robots with their intelligence derived from our own but redesigned to far exceed human capabilities represent the most significant transformation, because intelligence is the most powerful 'force' in the universe.  Intelligence, if sufficiently advanced, is, well, smart enough to anticipate and overcome any obstacles that stand in its path." —

The 'R' acronym essentially encompasses I.J. Goode's "intelligence explosion," that is for many itself synonymous with the Singularity.

Are the GNR technologies enough though?  Could Kurzweil have overlooked other factors that will power and accelerate the technological Singularity?

One possible acronym that might be 'C' for connectedness, or connectivity, communication, or even cooperation.

We are now well into the development and implementation of 'C' technologies from the telegraph to the telephone, to the internet. As these technologies continually become faster, cheaper and closer to direct incorporation into our bodies and minds, they are a key component of the technological Singularity.

Consider the impact of the internet itself.  In The Singularity Is Near, Kurzweil does not really lump the Internet into a G, N or R category, and obviously the world-wide-web impacts all of these areas, from allowing scientists and researchers to communicate there ideas with unprecedented speed and reach.

For nanotechnology, Kurzweil also mentions that the devices we will implant into our own bloodstreams will communicate with intelligent software and other online services.  Artificial intelligence systems will obviously interact and communicate with people and other AIs via the internet as well.

In Abundance: The Future Is Better Than You Think, Steven Kotler and Peter Diamandis also explore 'C' technologies that are empowering the Singularity from competitions, to crowd sourcing and on-line education.  These tools empower the technophilanthopists and DIY innovators Diamadis and Kotler describe to further accelerate technological development.  Information and communications technologies are, as a result, key building blocks of their Abundance Pyramid.

Another 'C' acronym word that might even be included is culture.  As Ronald Wright points out in Nonzero: The Logic of Human Destiny:

Next humans started with a completely second kind of evolution: cultural evolution (the evolutions of ideas, memes, and technologies).  Amazingly, that evolution has sustained the trajectory that biological evolution has established towards greater complexity and cooperation.

Kotler and Diamandis point out that the cultural evolution brought about the most powerful tools for cooperation the world has ever seen.

Economist Jeffrey Sachs also points out, "In the world's most remote villages the conversation now often turns to the most up-to-date political and cultural events, all empowered by cell phones even more than radio and television."

Possibly a 'C' could also represent the rise of the global brain.  The global represents the worldwide intelligent network formed by all the individuals of this planet, together with the information and communication technologies that connect them into a self-organizing whole.

According the Wikipedia definition of the global brain: as the internet becomes faster, more intelligent, and more encompassing, it increasingly ties us together into a single information processing system, which functions like a nervous system for the planet Earth. The intelligence of this network is collective or distributed: it is not centralized or localized in any particular individual, organization or computer system. It rather emerges from the dynamic networks of interactions between its components, a property typical of complex adaptive systems.

Image Source: Stefan Larsson

Cybernetisist Cliff Joslyn points out that,

We are seeing a vast increase in the variety of kinds of activities and information available to individuals. This does not just facilitate human freedom, it effectively is human freedom in the sense of there being an increasing variety of possible states of human experience and actions. But on the other hand, constraints are introduced from the global level through economic and technological processes, and “canalization” and self-organizing around norms, protocols, and economic structures. 

The 'C' technologies that are helping give rise to the global brain will also make use of the cognitive surplus, a term conceived of  by Clay Shirky who notes that we are experiencing an era where people like to produce and share just as much, if not more than they like to consume. With technology allowing the production and sharing as never before we will see a new era of participation that will lead to big change.

As the newly formed Global Brain Institute looks to the phenomenon of the global brain,

We see people, machines and software systems as agents that communicate via a complex network of communication links. Problems, observations, questions or opportunities define challenges that may incite these agents to act.

Challenges that cannot be fully resolved by a single agent are normally propagated to one or more other agents, along the links in the network. These agents contribute their own expertise to resolving the challenge, and if necessary propagate the challenge further, until it is fully resolved. Thus, the skills and knowledge of the different agents are pooled into a collective intelligence much more powerful than the one of its individual members.

The propagation of challenges across the global network is a complex, self-organizing process, similar to the "spreading activation" that characterizes thinking in the human brain. This process will typically change the network by reinforcing useful links, while weakening the others. Thus, the network learns or adapts to new challenges, becoming more intelligent in the process.

With the Internet of Things also bringing our machines online it is essential that the thinking around 'C' technologies not be limited to person-to-person communication or cooperation.  Today, there are about two Internet-connected devices for every man, woman and child on the planet. By 2025, analysts are forecasting that this ratio will rise past six. Therefore can expect to grow to nearly 50 billion Internet-connected devices in the next decade.

"Eventually," Kurzweil writes "we will merge with these technologies." At that point, the Singularity, humans will become immortal and capable of changing their forms and environments at will, Kurzweil believes.

"There will be no distinction, post-Singularity, between human and machine nor between physical and virtual reality," Kurzweil writes in his book.

As Eric Savitz from Forbes points out, "This fabric of technology will allow us to measure systems on a global scale and at the same time offer a never before seen resolution. This capability to bring the big picture into sharp focus enables us to provide a real-time digital representation of our constantly changing world. This is the first step in a journey to explain the world will live in, our role in it and our impact upon it."

The connectedness expressed via concepts like the global brain, to this end, represents also how humanity will potentially merge with machine intelligence.  Based on the idea that the global brain will arise from the connections as a new form of intelligence, perhaps it belongs as part of Kurzweil's 'R' technologies?

There is no denying that GNR technologies are powering the exponential growth of human capbility that will ultimately create a technoligical Singularity, but without 'C' technologies as well, none of the others would be possible, or even matter. What else do you think Kurzweil potentially left out of his definition of  the Singularity?

By 33rd Square

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